The number one overall pick in the NFL draft is seen as one of the most valuable assets in the NFL, and for non-playoff teams, many fans hope they can get as close to number one as possible. You would think that the earlier you pick in the draft, the better off you are, and 99.9% of the time, that is the case. But in this year’s draft, holding the first overall pick feels like a GM’s worst nightmare, a nightmare that is quickly becoming a reality for new GM John Spytek.
Here is the conundrum: When you get the first overall pick in the draft, most fans blame the quarterback for the team losing games. Because of this, the expectation from fans is that you address the “quarterback problem” with the first overall pick. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they just traded for and extended QB Geno Smith, and now will hold a top-two pick in a class that is very weak at QB.
Now, let’s be clear, Geno Smith has been far from great this season, leading the league in interceptions and struggling to get anything going for the Raiders’ offense. At 35 years old, he is almost certainly not the long-term answer for the Raiders at quarterback, and in theory, moving on would make a lot of sense. But while he clearly has struggled, the Raiders have far bigger problems than just a quarterback.
On offense, Las Vegas only has two positions really worked out for the future with Ashton Jeanty at running back and Brock Bowers at TE. Outside of those two, the entire offense needs to be retooled, especially their offensive line, which may well be the worst unit in football. The Raiders have a franchise left tackle in Kolton Miller, a solid interior lineman in Jackson Powers-Johnson, and a solid utility man in Delmar Glaze. Beyond that, the future in the trenches for the Raiders is bleak.
There is nothing more critical for the Raiders this offseason than to address the offensive line, regardless of who their quarterback will be. Ashton Jeanty was the sixth overall pick in the draft after his dominant career at Boise State, but has struggled to get anything going behind the Raiders’ patchwork line. In the pass game, Geno Smith has no time to throw and has been beaten up week in and week out. But also, finding offensive line talent in free agency can be tough, as teams rarely let go of talented players in their front five.
It would be borderline malpractice for John Spytek to put a rookie quarterback into this offense, especially when you realize they would eat almost 20 million in dead cap if they cut Geno Smith. Ideally, the Raiders would wait a year and pick a quarterback, while trading down and getting a king’s ransom for the pick this year. But at the same time, you never know when you will be picking this high again, and with Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore there, it could be tempting for the Raiders to add a QB. Not to mention that few teams would have any interest in trading up this year.
All of these issues are compounded by the fact that the team is led by 74-year-old Pete Carroll, who has struggled to assemble a strong staff in his first year as head coach. It is a dumpster fire in Las Vegas, and they are far more than just a year away from becoming contenders in the AFC. John Spytek was given a mess, and cleaning it up will take a lot more than just one top draft pick, but you also cannot afford to miss out on your franchise quarterback.
Here is where I stand, listen to offers on the pick, and if you are able to get significant value for number one overall, trade the pick and build the team. But if by the time free agency starts, you are not satisfied with the offers you are getting, sign a veteran QB, draft Moore/Mendoza, and dump money into the offensive line. This way you are at least giving them a chance to develop their skill on the bench, and then when they take over the starting job, they will have time to throw… Hopefully.
