Growing up, many people my age idolized elite WR talents like Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss, and Andre Johnson, some of the most physically dominant receivers of their time. These types of guys dominated in so many ways, but one of the main traits that separates them from the rest of the NFL was their ability to high-point a ball and make a catch through contact. Deep down the field, these guys can’t be left one-on-one, and on the goal line, fade routes to Calvin Johnson… forget about it. But slowly, that skill set is being undervalued in the NFL, and we are seeing less and less of those types of receivers.
Let’s start with why teams have adjusted how they evaluate receiver talent, and really, the concept is relatively simple. Bigger guys who make contested catches usually have to make those catches because they don’t get great separation at the line of scrimmage and have to make impressive catches to make up for it. But would’t it be so much easier if the reciever could get a little bit of space and make an easier catch with a higher success rate? In theory, yes, but it goes a little bit deeper than that.
Another justification for teams to value separation numbers is that when a receiver separates from the corner, they frequently have room to run after the catch. On the flip side, if you have a bigger, more physical reciever, a contested catch may be further down the field, but rarely will result in any after-catch yardage. YAC is one of the most valuable stats in the modern NFL, as teams value the ability to use their offensive scheme to get the ball to players in space rather than relying on players to take over.
In theory, this all sounds pretty simple: some guys can get open and others cannot, and it’s much easier to catch the ball when you’re open, so we should value those guys more. In the modern NFL, where teams consistently run two-high looks, having a player who can go up and get the ball has become a lost art. But that is where I want to pump the brakes, because while it is true that separation and YAC are valuable stats that translate to winning, you cannot measure physicality.
First of all, disclaimer… I am not arguing that ALL receivers should be significant physical threats, but I am arguing that they still hold fair value in the modern NFL, and here’s why. Schemes do not always work, and what looks good in practice may not translate to game day. A big, physical reciever gives your quarterback a bailout option on either a curl route or a streak down the field, which will either be caught or incomplete.
The other is on the goal line, where the field is condensed, and teams are almost always looking to spread out the defense. If you have a receiver who provides the threat of a fade route, a bigger corner has to match up with them on the outside. If they do not, a fade route to a reciever with significantly more size will work out more often than not. Calvin Johnson was the best at this, and on the goal line, fade routes to Johnson were converted for TDs almost 80% of the time.
Now I recognize that not every receiver is Calvin Johnson, and realistically, no one is. But a better example is Mike Williams, who had a stretch of dominance while playing with the Chargers. Every week, teams had to plan for Williams and make sure he was marked by a bigger corner on every down, throwing a major wrinkle into the game plan. If they did not, teams had to send a safety over to help, dedicating two people in coverage for one man.
Williams ended up struggling to stick later in his career as injuries derailed his ability to impact the game, and receivers like him have become increasingly rare. Currently in the NFL, guys like George Pickens, Terry McLaurin, Drake London, and AJ Brown are some examples of this, and they have made significant impacts on their teams’ offenses. Despite not being able to separate, each of these receivers leads the game plan for opposing defenses and changes how the game is played.
The biggest downfall for these types of players is coaches trying to turn them into something they are not, which causes them to struggle. Young guys like Keon Coleman, Adonai Mitchell, Chase Claypool, and Kevin White are prime examples of players with the talent who could not stick in a modern NFL offense.
In this year’s draft, there are several top prospects I am a big fan of who can provide a physical threat to an offense and will have successful careers as long as they are allowed to play their roles. Carnell Tate, Chris Brazzell, and Duce Robinson are all incredible contested catch receivers, with Tate being the most well-rounded of the group. Brazzell and Robinson will outmatch smaller corners in the NFL and give defenses headaches trying to cover them. Currently, these players are some of the most underrated players in the draft, but when you are aware of the potential impact they could have on an NFL offense, you can see what makes them truly special prospects.
