In each of the last five drafts, we have seen draft-day trades involving top-10 picks, and it is almost certain we will see some significant trades this year. Last year, we saw the Jaguars jump to select Travis Hunter, and in 2024, the Vikings jumped to No. 10 to choose JJ McCarthy. This year, there will be several teams picking in the top 10 who will look to trade down, and with several QB-needy teams and not many first-round QB prospects, we will almost certainly see some movement.
Earlier in the season, I wrote that many teams may look to trade down in the draft, but the challenge is finding teams willing to trade up. The consensus on this year’s draft is that it is weak, with not enough top-tier players to justify spending high-value draft picks on less valuable prospects. Because of this sentiment, many decisions about who will trade up come down to who does/doesn’t declare for the draft. Regardless, today I took a look at four of the most likely draft day trade scenarios.
Jets trade up to get Fernando Mendoza
To me, this feels like the most likely trade we will see this offseason. The Jets are sitting on a stockpile of draft picks that they acquired at the trade deadline, and have plenty of ammunition to jump up in the draft and get their QB of the future. They currently sit at pick five and could look to trade up with either the Giants or the Titans, depending on which pick they want and if Mendoza is available.
Mendoza is QB 2 in my rankings, and he sits at 15 on my most recent big board, but the Jets getting Mendoza is more about his fit with the team. Dante Moore is my top QB, but he is inexperienced and will need some work. Simply put, I do not trust the Jets to develop a quarterback, and Mendoza feels like a much more NFL-ready prospect than Moore. The Jets have a star receiver and two great young offensive tackles to support Mendoza, and with a good offseason, getting Mendoza could make a lot of sense.
If I were the Jets in this scenario, I would look to keep as many of my 2027 draft picks as possible and use as many 2026 picks as I can to move up for Mendoza. A trade to get up to first overall would likely cost both first-round picks and a second-rounder, as well as maybe a day-three pick. If Mendoza does not go first overall, the Jets could save a lot of draft capital by trading up to pick two or three.
Steelers trade up for Dante Moore
The Steelers are going to be one of the more intriguing teams this offseason, as they are currently slated to get the 20th pick in the draft with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Rodgers just turned 42 this season and is rapidly approaching the end of his NFL career, leaving the QB room wide open in Pittsburgh. Even if Rodgers returns and resigns with the Steelers, Pittsburgh will almost certainly be in the market to draft his inevitable replacement.
Dante Moore is my number one overall quarterback in the draft, and I think his style of play will fit perfectly in Pittsburgh. As I mentioned before, Moore is an inexperienced player, and even if he has to sit behind Rodgers for a year, it could do him some good to develop under one of the best who has ever played the game.
This also makes sense because the Steelers have plenty of ammo to make a jump in this year’s draft. Pittsburgh is currently slated to have 12 picks in this year’s draft, and it is doubtful they will use all of them on draft day. I do not know if they have enough to get to first overall, but if Moore is not taken number one, I imagine the Steelers will make an appealing offer to get their QB of the future. If they do not get Moore, Sorsby could also be an option around pick 15.
Ravens trade into the first round with Seahawks to get OLB
The Baltimore Ravens have had a tumultuous season, with a slew of ups and downs throughout the year. Injuries have plagued their roster on both sides of the ball, and while they are starting to get back into the playoff race, things have not gone as planned. The Ravens will need to make improvements this offseason, and with 10 picks in this year’s draft, they will have an opportunity to retool their roster.
One of the few things that has remained consistent for the Ravens this season is their negligible pass rush off, especially off the edge. Baltimore currently ranks second to last in the NFL in sacks per game, and while there are several reasons for this, the struggles at outside linebacker are maybe the most significant factor. If Baltimore misses out on David Bailey with their first-round pick, the Ravens could look to make a jump to land a pass rusher at the bottom of the first round.
The Ravens jump up at the bottom of the first round with the Seahawks looking to move down and add picks later in the draft. Seattle currently holds just four picks in the 2026 NFL draft, and if they are looking to add some more selections later in the draft, the Ravens may be a great suitor. The Ravens could look for Cashius Howell, R Mason Thomas, or Damon Wilson, who could provide some serious pass-rush skills to their defense.
Texans trade back into first round for a Defensive Tackle
The Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but with a slew of upcoming free agents, Demeco Ryans could look to reload. The Texans have both of their star EDGE rushers under contract for the 2026 season, but a lack of depth on the interior of their defensive line could raise some concerns for the future. This year’s NFL draft is incredibly thin on the defensive line, and if the Texans are looking to add an impact defensive lineman, they will have to do it early.
Several teams could look to trade down at the bottom of the first round. The aforementioned Seahawks, as well as teams like the Chargers and 49ers, do not have much draft capital and could look to add value later in the draft. The Texans have nine picks in the draft, several of which are late in the middle rounds, which could appeal to contending teams looking to add scheme contributors. If the Texans get back into the first round, they could target Caleb Banks or Kayden McDonald to bolster their defensive line.
