Caleb Downs is worth a Top-5 pick

If we created a chart ranking positions by their positional value in the NFL, safety would be near the bottom, with most scouts arguing that it is almost “taboo” to take one in the top 10 of the draft. In the last several drafts, we have seen elite safety talent, such as Kyle Hamilton, Malaki Starks, and Nick Emmanwori, garner significant hype going into the draft. But all three guys fell further than expected, with Emmanwori even falling out of the first round.

This is something we see at other positions as well, with running backs and tight ends also often falling in the draft, as scouts often argue that the position itself is not valuable. While I can agree with this to an extent, I simply do not think that this should be the case with safeties, especially someone like Caleb Downs, who can play all over the field.

The impact of high-quality safeties has been proven time and time again across the league, with guys like Derwin James, Kyle Hamilton, Xavier McKinnney and Budda Baker revolutionizing their teams’ defense. These guys have proven to be some of the best defensive players in the league, and their impact is heavily felt when they are on the field.

Since his arrival in LA, the Chargers have a 53.5% win percentage when James plays, but without him, that number drops significantly to 47%. For the Ravens, since drafting Kyle Hamilton, they have won 67% of the games he has played in, but when he has been injured, they are just 1-3. The Giants had a 41% win percentage with Xavier McKinney on the field, but in games he missed, that number dropped to 27%. The most staggering number is for the Cardinals, who have just a 41% win percentage when Budda Baker is on the field, but in games he has missed… They are just 1-9.

Just last year, my top safeties in the draft went at these spots…

Malaki Starks – Pick 27

Nick Emmanwori – Pick 35

Billy Bowman – Fourth Round

Jonas Sanker – Third Round

Xavier Watts – Third Round

Andrew Mukuba – Last Pick of Second Round

Every name listed above is having a great rookie year, yet none of them were selected in the top 25, and most were not even considered until day two of the draft. So with it being so clear that teams heavily benefit from elite safety play… Why are they so undervalued in the draft?

This is a question that needs to be evaluated, especially as one of the best safety prospects we have ever seen, Caleb Downs, is entering the draft this season. Will teams be making a mistake letting arguable the best player in the draft fall becasue he does not play a “valuable” position.

I would argue yes, and because of all the reasons listed above, I think Downs should be selected in the top 5. Teams picking that early in the draft are likely a little ways away from contending for a superbowl, and adding a player like Downs who can immediately come in and be a swiss army knife on the defense is immensely valueable. If teams let Downs slip in the draft the way they did with other top safties in the past… They will live to regret it.